Focusing on gold price predictions can sometimes be frustrating. As exciting and surprising as the price forecast is, so is cocoon.
It’s a good idea to take a look at some of these predictions to help keep things in perspective.
Headline: Gold Forecast $ 6000, and Analysis of Gold Mining by Visualization January 23, 2012
Excerpt: “If the current gold bill market follows the 70s bill market times and limits, the price of gold will reach $ 6,000 before 2014. “
Gold price on January 23, 2012: o 1679.00 per oz.
Gold price March 14, 2014: $ 1382.00 per oz.
Gold price on December 31, 2014: 8 1181.00 per oz.
How far can the price be predicted? Not only did gold not reach its target price, but it went in the opposite direction earlier this month, and fell 30 percent over the next two years, ending December 31, 2013 at 120 1205.00 an ounce.
Issue 000 6000.00 Gold is not justified. It is very respectable and possible. Maybe it’s possible. However, the prediction was misinterpreted, especially in terms of timing and terribly wrong in terms of direction and time.
All that excuse. Unless you own a subscription service and / or recommend investment to others, or provide business advice.
Headline: JPMorgan has forecast سون 1,800 gold by mid-2013 01 Feb 2013
Reference:“According to JPMorgan Chase & Co. in the Middle East, South Africa is in “crisis” and “growing instability”, JPMorgan found gold at $ 1,800, which was mined in South Africa With industry, gold will reach ڈالر 1,800 an ounce by mid-2013. “In crisis,” according to Bloomberg.“
The price of gold at that date was 1667.00 per ounce. Five months later, on June 29, 2013, the price of gold was 1233.00 per ounce.
00 1800.00 Gold call was ‘safe’ forecast. An increase of only 8% from the current (current) level of 1667.00 will result in the price of gold being 1800.00.
But, like the previous example, the price went south with revenge. This time it is falling by 26% in five short months.
Headline: Trump One Signals ، 1,500 Gold … November 10, 2014
Excerpt: “A Trump US presidential victory in the intermediate period … signaled 500 500,500 for gold.”
Gold price on November 10, 2015: 8 1258.00 per oz.
Gold price on July 31, 2017: o 1268.00 per oz.
Apparently, gold did not see the ‘signal’ because its current price is exactly the same as the price on which the forecast was printed just after last November’s election.
And what does the author mean by “intermediate term”? Long time no see. The expected dollar increase is 20%. If it takes two years, the cost is about ten percent per year. In this case – or if it takes more than two years – is it worth the bold facial headlines?
Headline: Trump will send قیمت 10,000 worth of gold November 10, 2014
Gold prices and dates are the same as in the above example. With gold where it was ten months ago, we can expect some progress towards this price target.
More unpredictable prices are usually around the breakdown or collapse of the financial system. The breakdown is the result of a complete devaluation of the US dollar after decades of devaluation. People refuse to accept or keep US dollars for the goods and services they offer.
Now suppose you have gold at the moment. Will you sell it? At what cost How many useless US dollars of gold would you share in an ounce of gold?
If you were offered one billion monopoly dollars for an ounce of gold today, would you take it? How about ten billion?
Well, what if we see a sharp decline in the value of the US dollar over the next several years? Let’s say that 50% of the current level is equivalent to a reduction in purchasing power for the dollar. This would equate to. 2500.00 per ounce of gold, double the current level.
If this gold and US dollar are currently in balance (I think they are) then this is correct. In other words, the current price of gold is 50 1250/60, which is a perfect reflection of the overall decline in the value of the US dollar since 1913.
A 50% drop in the purchase price of the US dollar will be reflected in higher prices for other goods and services. A pattern that has become very familiar over the last hundred years.
If there is a working market, and you assume that you sell some gold and make a profit, how much more will it cost you to decide to buy anything else? Do you really think that you can buy other goods at ‘discounted’ prices at this time?
Gold, in 1913, was 20.00 per ounce. It is currently 1260.00 per ounce. That’s an increase of sixty times. But it does not represent profit. Because today the general price level of goods and services – generally speaking – is sixty times higher than it was in 1913.
There are times when you can take advantage of fast sleep movements in the short term. In general, these are just before the major fluctuations in the value of the US dollar, which reflects an overall decline in the dollar’s purchasing power. And, to some extent, when the expectations of others are out of balance against the US dollar and the price of gold is accepted.
The hit price of gold per ounce in 1999/2000 was 250-275.00. Shortly after that, it started a decade long period which ended in 2011 with an ounce price close to $ 1900.00.
Since its peak in 2011, gold has fallen to less than. 1,000.00 an ounce over the next five years. A short-term recovery in early 2016 brought it closer to the current level (50 1250-1350.00) where it usually goes to a significant degree without breaking.
Where were all these ‘experts’ in 1999/2000 and then what were they predicting?
And from 2011/2012? They are saying the same thing over and over again. buy now! Buy more! Before it’s too late!
One day, it will be too late. But it is more about economic survival than ever before. Profits, predictions and the obsession with trade have obscured the basic principles.
And one or the other, most people’s profits are likely to increase with smoking before it makes any sense to them.
Gold – Physical gold – is real money. This is real money because it is a store of value. And its value is permanent. The US dollar is depreciating from time to time. The falling value of the US dollar and people’s perceptions of it and their expectations of it determine the price of gold.
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